Judgment and Decision Making - An Interdisciplinary Reader

Researchers in a growing number of fields - public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others - are working to understand and improve human judgment and decision making. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together a selection of key articles in the area, with careful organization, introduction and commentaries. Issues involving medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labor negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, jury decisions issues, and more are treated in this largely expanded volume, indicating the variety of problems - and scope in judgment and decision making. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammonds 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied. The papers selected are scientific in nature, but chosen specifically to appeal to the scholar, student and layperson alike. Contents
Series preface
Contributors
Editors preface to the second edition
Part I. Introduction and Overview: 1. Multiattribute evaluation
2. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases
3. Coherence and correspondence theories in judgment and decision making
4. Enhancing diagnostic decisions
Part II. Applications in Public Policy: 5. Illusions and mirages in public policy
6. The psychology of sunk cost
7. Value-focused thinking about strategic decisions at BC Hydro
8. Making better use of scientific knowledge: separating truth from justice
Part III. Applications in Economics: 9. Choices, values and frames
10. Who uses the cost-benefit rules of choice? Implications for the normative status of microeconomic theory
11. Does studying economics inhibit cooperation?
Part IV. Legal Applications: 12. Leading questions and the eyewitness report
13. Explanation-based decision making
14. Decision theory, reasonable doubt and the utility of erroneous acquittals
Part V. Medical Applications: 15. Capturing policy in hearing-aid decisions by audiologists
16. Physicians use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting
17. On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies
18. Enhanced interpretation of diagnostic images
Part VI. Experts: 19. Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers
20. Expert judgment: some necessary conditions and an example
21. The expert witness in psychology and psychiatry
Part VII. Forecasting and Prediction: 22. What forecast (seems to) mean
23. Proper and improper linear models
24. Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: implications for research and the improvement of forecasts
Part VIII. Bargaining and negotiation: 25. The judgment policies of negotiators and the structure of negotiation problems
26. The effect of agents and mediators on negotiation outcomes
Part IX. Risk: 27. Risk within reason
28. Risk perception and communication
29. Perceived risk, trust and democracy
Part X. Research Methods: 30. Value elicitation: is there anything in there?
31. The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items
32. The a priori case against graphology: methodological and conceptual issues
Part XI. Critiques and New Directions I: 33. The two camps on rationality Helmut Jungermann
34. On cognitive illusions and their implications
35. Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality
36. Judgment and decision making in social context: discourse processes and rational inference
Part XII. Critiques and New Directions II: 37. Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: toward an integrative approach
38. Nonconsequentialist decisions
39. Algebra and process in the modeling of risky choice
40. The theory of image theory: an examination of the central conceptual structure
Author index
Subject index.

Author/Editor Details
Edited by: Terry Connolly, University of Arizona
Edited by: Hal R. Arkes, Ohio University
Edited by: Kenneth R. Hammond, University of Colorado, Boulder