The Young and the Elderly at Risk: Individual Outcomes and Contemporary Policy Challenges in European Societies: 2015

The current retrenchment of the welfare states is buffering the growing demographic and economic pressures in European countries at the expense of the young and the elderly. However, both investment in the young, which determines a society's future, and providing public support for the elderly, the most deserving needy group, are seen as musts. This book encompasses a selection of empirical studies reflecting on when and why the young and the elderly are at risk in several (mostly Western) European countries. Contributions in the book examine the educational achievement and the labor market entry of youths, particularly those who have a migration background, the poverty risk experienced by the elderly, especially if they are also immigrants and/or women, the pension outcomes of former cross-border workers, the simulated consequeces of a recent pension benefit reform as well as those of a potential reform including financial assets and housing wealth in old-age income protection, and finally the extent, and possible erosion, of the support for government providing child-care and protecting the elderly.' Empirical research, as it is presented in this book's contributions, can add much to our understanding of how this social contract, and by extension also others, like the social contracts between the active and inactive, the healthy and the sick, and the rich and the poor, can be sustained, economically, politically, as well as socially.'Wim van Oorschot, Professor of Social Policy at KU Leuven and Honorary President of ESPAnet

CON T E N TS Abstract ... v Dedication ... vii Acknowledgements ... ix Preface by Wim van Oorschot... xi Introduction Ioana Salagean, Catalina Lomos and Anne Hartung ... 1 Chapter 1 Does Ethnic Capital Contribute to the Educational Outcomes of Individuals with Turkish Background in Europe? Sait Bayrakdar ... 9 1. Introduction ... 9 2. Conceptual framework and hypotheses ... 11 2.1. Ethnic capital as a resource ... 11 2.2. A comparative approach to ethnic capital ... 15 3. Data and methodology ... 16 3.1. Data source ... 16 3.2. Operationalisation ... 17 3.3. Methods ... 19 4. Results ... 19 4.1. Descriptive results ... 19 4.2. Regression results ... 22 5. Conclusion ... 25 References ... 26 Acknowledgements ... 29 Annex ... 29 Chapter 2 Young Adults at Risk in Germany: The Impact of Vocational Training on the Ethnic Gap at Labour Market Entry Anne Hartung ... 33 1. Introduction ... 34 2. Labour market differences in theory: justifiable or penalties? ... 36 Contents 3. The German "Dual System" of vocational education and training ... 38 4. Methods ... 41 4.1. Data, sample and variables ... 41 4.2. Estimated model ... 43 5. Successful transition from school to work in Germany? Empirical insights ... 44 6. Concluding remarks ... 49 Acknowledgements ... 51 References ... 51 Annex ... 55 Chapter 3 Poverty among Elderly Immigrants in Belgium Line De Witte, Sofie Vanassche & Hans Peeters ... 57 1. Introduction ... 57 2. Immigration history of current elderly immigrants in Belgium ... 59 3. Determinants of poverty in later life ... 59 3.1. Belgian pension regulations ... 60 3.1.1. Previous labour market patterns of elderly immigrants ... 60 3.1.2. Current marital status of elderly immigrants ... 61 3.2. Household composition of elderly immigrants ... 62 4. Present study ... 62 5. Data and methods ... 62 5.1. Data... 63 5.2. Dependent variable ... 63 5.3. Independent variables ... 64 5.4. Analytical strategy ... 65 6. Results ... 66 6.1. Descriptive statistics: background characteristics, household composition, labour market trajectories and pension type according to country of origin ... 66 6.1.1. Demographic characteristics ... 66 6.1.2. Career type ... 67 6.1.3. Previous labour market career for employees ... 71 6.2. Bivariate analyses: poverty risk according to country of origin and gender ... 71 6.3. Multivariate analyses: poverty risk according to country of origin controlling for labour market career, marital status and household composition ... 75 7. Discussion and conclusions ... 77 References ... 81 Contents Chapter 4 Integrating Life Course and Pension Policy Perspectives: The Case of Poverty Among Elderly Women Hans Peeters & Wouter De Tavernier ... 85 1. Introduction ... 85 2. Incidence of poverty among elderly women ... 86 3. Family and career from the late 1950s in Belgium ... 87 4. Belgian pension regulations and the male breadwinner model ... 88 5. Hypotheses ... 91 5.1. The direct impact of marital history on old-age poverty risk ... 91 5.2. The indirect impact of marital and parenthood histories on old-age poverty risk ... 91 6. Data, operationalisation and method ... 93 6.1. Data... 93 6.2. Operationalisation of variables ... 94 6.3. Method ... 95 7. Results ... 97 7.1. Descriptive statistics ... 97 7.2. The direct impact of marital history on old-age poverty risk ... 97 7.3. The indirect impact of family history on old-age poverty risk ... 99 8. Discussion ... 101 References ... 102 Chapter 5 Including Assets in Comparative Old-Age Poverty Research: How does It Change the Picture? Rika Verpoorten ... 107 1. Introduction ... 107 2. Sources of income for the elderly population... 110 3. Including assets in the old-age income package ... 111 4. Research questions and hypotheses ... 113 5. Methodology ... 114 6. Research results ... 116 7. Conclusion ... 121 References ... 122 Annex: Simulation of the potential contribution from assets ... 126 Contents Chapter 6 The Social and Budgetary Impacts of the Recent Social Security Reform in Belgium Gijs Dekkers, Raphael Desmet, Nicole Fasquelle & Saskia Weemaes ... 129 1. Introduction ... 130 2. The recent social security reform in Belgium ... 132 3. Simulating the impact of social security reform: a tale of many models ... 135 4. The budgetary impacts of the structural reform ... 141 4.1. Labour market and macroeconomic environment ... 142 4.2. Social expenditures ... 144 4.2.1. Unemployment, career breaks and conventional early leavers' scheme ... 145 4.2.2. Pension schemes ... 146 5. The social impact of social security reform ... 147 5.1. Impact of pension reform on the poverty risk of the pensioners . . 148 5.2. The impact of unemployment reform on the poverty risk of the unemployed... 152 6. Conclusion ... 154 References ... 155 Chapter 7 Cross-Border Social Security Coordination, Mobility of Labour and Pension Outcomes Irina Burlacu & Cathal O'Donoghue ... 159 1. Introduction ... 160 2. Using replacement rates to assess the income smoothing objective of the pension benefits: theoretical insights ... 162 3. Variation of pension systems in Belgium and Luxembourg and the implications of social security coordination of old-age pensions... 164 4. Methodology ... 169 4.1. Definitions and discussion of pension replacement rates ... 170 4.2. Assumptions ... 172 5. Results of the analysis ... 173 5.1. Short-term replacement rates ... 173 5.2. Long-term replacement rates ... 175 6. Conclusions ... 177 Acknowledgements ... 178 References ... 178 Annex ... 180 Contents Chapter 8 Do Self-Interest, Ideolog y and National Context Infl uence Opinions on Government Support for Childcare for Working Parents? A Multilevel Analysis Wouter De Tavernier ... 181 1. Introduction ... 182 2. Theoretical framework... 182 2.1. Attitudes toward welfare states ... 182 2.2. Social care regime typologies ... 185 3. Data and method ... 186 4. Results ... 188 5. Conclusion ... 197 6. Limitations... 201 References ... 202 Chapter 9 Individual Attitudes Towards Welfare States Responsibility for the Elderly Nathalie Schuerman ... 205 1. Introduction ... 205 2. Theoretical framework... 207 2.1. Individual level ... 207 2.1.1. Self-interest predictors ... 208 2.1.2. Ideational variables ... 209 2.1.3. Perceived living conditions ... 210 2.2. Country level ... 211 3. Data, methodology and operationalisation ... 212 3.1. Data... 212 3.2. Variables ... 212 3.2.1. Dependent variable ... 213 3.2.2. Explanatory variables ... 213 3.2.2.1. Individual level ... 213 3.2.2.2. Country level ... 213 3.3. Methodology ... 214 4. Results ... 215 4.1. Univariate analyses ... 215 4.2. Multilevel analyses ... 216 5. Conclusion and discussion ... 222 6. Future research and policy implications... 223 Acknowledgements ... 223 References ... 224 Annex ... 226 Contents Rejoinder: Is Intergenerational Solidarity under Pressure? Comparative Analyses of Age Cleavages in Opinions about Government Support for the Young and the Old Tim Reeskens & Wim van Oorschot ... 229 1. Introduction ... 230 2. Age and opinions on welfare provision for the young and the old ... 231 2.1. An "age war" in Europe? ... 231 2.2. Mechanisms and contexts ... 232 2.2.1. Individual-level mechanisms... 233 2.2.2. National contexts... 234 3. Data and methodology ... 235 3.1. Data... 235 3.2. Dependent variables ... 235 3.3. Independent variable ... 236 3.4. Individual-level intermediary variables ... 236 3.5. National-level moderators... 238 3.6. Methodology ... 238 4. Results ... 239 4.1. Support levels and age cleavages ... 239 4.2. Mediation analyses ... 241 4.3. Explaining cross-national differences in age cleavages ... 245 5. Conclusion ... 247 References ... 248 Annex ... 250 Biographical notes ... 253